Leading up to the 2022 NFL season, Post Action Betting will release a gambling preview for all 32 teams in the National Football League, covering the schedule, predictions, win total over/under picks, and prop bets for every team. Today, we will cover the hometown New York Giants. Be sure to check out our New York Jets preview.
New York Giants (100/1 to win Super Bowl, BetMGM)
2021 records: 4-13, 4th in AFC East
Last Friday, we discussed the optimism for the Jets’ season. The same will not be said here about our hometown New York Giants.
The silver lining is that the person to blame for the Giants’ current situation is no longer part of the franchise.
Dave Gettleman essentially ran the Giants into the ground for four years as general manager; now, the bill is due for one of the worst hires in team history.
New Giants GM Joe Schoen is doing his best with limited cap space to make offseason moves. In total, the Giants brought in 25 new players to their roster via free agency, the fourth most in the NFL, but somehow they were able to do it while spending the 10th least in the league, according to Spotrac.
As usual in the NFL, everything will come down to quarterback play. Let’s see how Daniel Jones progresses as their signal caller.
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Giants offseason moves: Draft, trades, free agent signings, departures
- Drafted: DE ORE Kayvon Thibodeaux (No. 5), OT FT Evan Neal (No. 7), Kentucky CB Wan’Dale Robinson (No. 43), UNC OG Joshua Ezeudu (No. 67), LSU CB Cor’Dale Flott (#81)
- Signings: TE Ricky Seals-Jones (Washington), OL Max Garcia (Cardinals), WR/KR Richie James (49ers), DT Justin Ellis (Jaguars), QB Tyrod Taylor (Texans)
- Departures: OG Will Hernandez, OLB Lorenzo Carter, OT Nate Solder, TE Kyle Rudolph, RB Devontae Booker, TE Evan Engram, S Jabrill Peppers
Giants 2022 Schedule
Week 1: at Tennessee Titans
Week 2: vs. Carolina Panthers
Week 3: vs. Dallas Cowboys (Mon.)
Week 4: vs. Chicago Bears
Week 5: at Green Bay Packers
Week 6: vs. Baltimore Ravens
Week 7: at Jacksonville Jaguars
Week 8: at Seattle Seahawks
Week 9: BYE
Week 10: vs. Houston Texans
Week 11: vs. Detroit Lions
Week 12: at Dallas Cowboys (Thur.)
Week 13: vs. Washington Commanders
Week 14: vs. philadelphia eagles
Week 15: at Washington Commanders
Week 16: at Minnesota Vikings (Sat.)
Week 17: vs. Indianapolis Colts
Week 18: at Philadelphia Eagles
Betting on the NFL?
NFL betting lines: Giants win total
O/U 7.5 wins (fan duel)
Last season, the Giants were rated 30th overall by Pro Football Focus and their premium grading system. They were 31st overall in offense and 30th in special teams under Joe Judge. Hopefully, they can improve under first-year head coach Brian Daboll. Daboll is the favorite to win Coach of the Year at +1200 on BetMGM.
That is not worth a play preseason, as their early season schedule isn’t particularly inviting. Betting Coach of the Year is also betting for at least 10 wins.
Currently, their win total is set at 7.5 wins. That is way too optimistic, even with the Giants owning the easiest schedule in the NFL, according to Sharp Football Analysis.
The schedule lightens up dramatically after Week 6. However, the Giants will likely be 1-5 or 2-4 by that point. Expect them to be underdogs in five of their first six games.
For an ‘over’ bet to cash, they would need to win six of their next 11 games. It would require a steep turnaround, but this new regime will likely want a new quarterback at the helm next year.
The Giants have won more than seven games just one since 2012; that’s a decade ago. Slam that under as the Giants could even look to tank for a QB if it gets ugly early.
Giants O/U 7.5 wins: The pick
Under 7.5 -165 (FanDuel)
Giants to make the playoffs: No (-250)
Expert best bets, futures, and props
Saquon Barkley ‘under’ 7.5 rushing touchdowns -115 (Caesars)
The oft-injured Saquon Barkley looked like he was on his way to a gold jacket Hall of Fame career in his first two seasons. Unfortunately, injuries are a significant factor here, as Barkley’s career hasn’t really gotten off the ground since then.
At the time of writing, Barkley has a projected rushing touchdown total of 7.5 for this season. It is important to note that receiving touchdowns are not included in this bet.
This would also appear optimistic for the Giants, even with the expected improvement on the offensive line,
For starters, he did not look good last season, and PFF agrees, ranking him 58th out of 62 qualified running backs. His yards per carry from him dropped significantly (3.7 in 2021, 5.0 and 4.6 in 2018 and 2019), and he is probably at the point in his career where he shouldn’t be used as a workhorse three-down back.
Barkley only breaks/forces missed tackles 3.7 percent of the time, which is near the bottom of qualified running backs, according to FantasyPros.
Barkley does have a lot of motivation to right the ship this season, as he will likely want a contract extension this offseason. If he does not play better, he will probably get a one-year deal from a team that he is actually contending for.
All of this doesn’t even get us to the inherent injury risk that Barkley carries. All things considered, 7.5 is just too high.