How the Lightning won Game 5

Andrei Vasilevskiy wasn’t perfect tonight, but he gave his team a chance to win with a quality start. According to Evolving-Hockey, I have saved .28 goals above expected. Darcy Kuemper, on the other hand, allowed 1.14 goals above expected – not his sharpest.

Bottom-five in game score:

Erik Cernak -1.53

Nick Paul -1.25

Darcy Kuemper -.89

Ryan McDonagh -.65

Brandon Hagel-.51

Game score leaders thanks to HockeyStatCards

Mikhail Sergachev

Valeri Nichushkin

Ondrej Palat

It wasn’t Josh Manson’s night. Not only did Tampa Bay double Colorado’s shot attempts in his five-on-five minutes (14-7), but the Avalanche mustered less than 37 percent of the expected goals share. Playing against Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, and Ondrej Palat really burned him in Game 5.

Okay, let’s not pretend Riley Nash over Brayden Point is helping Tampa Bay. That said, it’s impressive that he’s remained so defensively sound when the team has needed him to jump into play. Tonight, at five-on-five, shot attempts were 8-3 in the Lightning’s favor with him on the ice and they generated 96 percent of the expected goal share. His job from him essentially is to not be a liability and help the team maintain the ability to role four lines. But Nash is bringing a positive defensive impact as well.

At five-on-five, Tampa Bay was the better third period team across the board. That increased their overall numbers for the game. The Lightning generated 51.7 percent of the shots, but couldn’t surpass Colorado in expected goals (at just 44.2 percent). They managed to hold the Avalanche off for at least one more game and try to extend their championship run. Will they? This may have been one of the better games the Bolts have played, but they’re going to have to build from here to really have a chance against a Colorado team that should be expected to come out firing in Game 6.

The Tampa Bay Lightning stayed alive in the 2022 Stanley Cup Final with a 3-2 win over the Colorado Avalanche in Game 5, bringing the series 3-2. The defending champions will host Game 6.

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If you said before the game that Tampa Bay would win because their all-world goaltender held up and Palat scored a game-winning goal, that would have been maybe the most believable scenario. That’s exactly what happened, with a late too many men call on Colorado late in the game for some poetic justice. Now, the Lightning go back home needing just one win to force a winner-take-all Game 7.

The Lightning escape elimination 3-2.

Penalty killed and the Avalanche pull Darcy Kuemper. The clock is ticking…

And there’s the drama: a too many men call, of all calls after Game 4. Tampa Bay’s back on the power play with over two minutes left in regulation. Colorado will have ~38 seconds of play back at even strength if the Lightning don’t capitalize here.

It’ll be interesting to see when the Avalanche choose to pull the goaltender and go with an empty net. In the regular season, they were No. 3 in the league in goals scored with an empty net.

Can Colorado respond for a third time? They’ve pulled even twice so far, but have yet to lead in this game. But they just keep pouring on the pressure every time they fall behind in score, which is why the Lightning haven’t managed more than a one goal lead in this game and keeps having to restore it.

Ondrej Palat is no stranger to big time goals in big time moments for the Lightning. Any game now could be his end of it in a Tampa Bay sweater. It’ll be interesting to see how the Lightning handles this unrestricted free agent.

If you had to guess a player to pull the Lightning back ahead, Ondrej Palat has to be high on your list. This is a player who just comes to play every postseason. This is a player who scored points at a rate of 2.32 per 60 in the regular season. In the playoffs this year? 3.26 points per 60 in all situations, thanks to his 11 goals and 20 points. Chalk up another player who is about to get paid