Selected features, stakes coverage and the never-ending TwinSpires’ horses-to-watch list (H2W) share keys to success in exotics, win, place and show payoffs.
Thursday, July 28
Each Thursday we highlight some likely long shots from Mohawk Park. If they do not win at first crack we add them to the H2W the following week as bet-backs or in selected features, adding new possibilities to this section.
R2 — #3 We Shall Sea (10-1): Sharp sired stakes material, most likely an overlay.
R3 — #4 Winooski (15-1): Potentially profitable flying under the radar.
Friday, July 29
The Kadabra ($50k) for up-and-coming frosh-filly trotters presents us with a money shot in #7 Judge Me Not (30-1). Potential already noted, she won’t get much action if we keep her to ourselves. Then again, no one will be impressed by her winning time which you and I know can improve on a moment’s notice. The moment could be tonight and at a price.
The Incredible Finale frosh-colt pace ($50k) is best played with an Erv Miller-trainee. There are five to choose from in his cavalcade of colts entered. We’ll take rail-starter #1 Mister Sleaze (30-1), who the crowd won’t like as much as Miller, we presume. This one hit the board twice in four starts and should get better.
The single 10-colt-trotter Peter Haughton elim is not easy game to play. There are more horses than trainers but all entries are well-related and immature. With only one involved, Ake Svanstedt’s #1 Paramount Legend N (5-1) is the only son of Father Patrick in the field and certainly won’t be favored as well as he should be.
For the 10-filly trotters in the Jim Doherty elim we support the single Tactical Landing product #3 A Madonna (8-1). She’s two wins for three starts and Tony Alagna is sure this one can show its muscles among the sire’s first crop.
Saturday, July 30
The shape of the 2022 Goodbye leaves little room for arguments about the profit of either elim winner. #5 Beach Glass and #3 Pebble Beach won their elims at 1-5 in perfect unison. Both left wide to get the lead and made their foes chase them. Beach Glass did it six ticks faster but that’s moot. The duo makes this classic event a match race and match races are exhibition races, time-trials, bookies’ nightmares. We take plan C and hope for a burnout duel that allows #7 Bythemissal to be in the perfect spot to nip them. A whisker will do for the only valued win price.
Two elims for each soph division (girls $40k; Open $100k per) decides next week’s classic field. Here are our main contenders in the Hambletonian Oaks and the Hambletonian (Open):
Race 8—Oaks: Jim Campbell’s #6 Misswalner Fashion has raced better than her odds and with a good cover trip she can wind up best.
Race 9—Open: We’ve touted #1 Cool Papa Bell and he has responded better than his odds and may be at his peak to at least win his elim.
Race 10—Oaks: #6 Baptism lost a few steps charging first over at three-quarters and lost but on the two-turn mile in New Jersey, Svanstedt’s Southwind Frank gal could bombard these with a speedy win.
Race 11—Open: #10 Joviality S should win the final next week but we want to bet against her to get beat in the elim. She can, too, if #8 Keg Stand is tempered stalking her. Nancy Takter’s colt is perfect in two starts and we don’t know yet how much he has in those square-moving legs.
Horses to Watch
Review our choices and confirm the wagers available at the prescribed track. H2W offers possible contenders researched from reviewing races. Horses’ names are listed beneath the name of the track with the date of their race and the race number (R6) follows. If a + is in front of a horse’s name, it appears on the list for the second time (horses are listed twice only if, at first, they failed to win. An “ae” signals also-eligible. Types of wagers to make are based on your judgement.
7/28/22, +Yankee Litigator R4
7/29/22, +Fox Valley Auburn R6
7/28/22, +Why Not Now R12
7/29/22, T’s Raider Ii R10
7/29/22, What’s The Talk R2; Curah R4; +Jaguar R6; Male Man R12
7/28/22, +Ghostly Caper R1; +Stakeholder R6; +Horn Player R8
7/28/22, +Statement R2; +Mcard Attack R2
7/30/22, +Somewhere Onthebay R2; Jackpot Jessie R3
7/28/22, Gucci Girl R6; Candy Bomber R11
7/29/22, +What Should I Goo R7
7/28/22, Sumbigbank Hanover R4; +Marquis Lafayette R5; Dazzling Lindy R9
7/29/22, Annie OK R2; Sofer R6
7/30/22, Worthy Of Honor R6; +The Moonshadow N R9
7/31/22, P Chico R12
7/28/22, Datsyukian Deke R1; Hankscoltfortyfive R3; +Tenthousand Angels R6
7/29/22, Mr Cool Seaeyre N R3
7/30/22, Hot Joe R5; Top Recruit R11
7/28/22, +Macbook Pro R2;
7/29/22, +Mugshot Man R13; +Lockbox R16
7/29/22, +Grateful Express R6; +Hall Of Duty R9
7/30/22, Samson J R7
7/28/22, Metro Matty R8
7/30/22, +Gemologist R7