It’s been a profitable week for our man and he rounds out his Qatar Goodwood Festival previews with a couple of fresh bets for Saturday.
Value Bet tips: Saturday July 30
1pt win Boss Power in 2.10 Goodwood at 1/14 (Overall)
1pt ew Red in 3.20 Goodwood at 33/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power 1/5 1,2,3,4,5,6,7)
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook | ITV7
1pt ew First Folio in 3.20 Goodwood at 16/1 (1/5 1,2,3,4,5)
Red to shine in Stewards’ Cup
The consolation race may not be up to much but Saturday’s Coral Stewards’ Cup is as compelling as ever and having got First Folio on side three weeks ago, I’m happy to add another to the Goodwood staking plan in such a competitive handicap.
Great Ambassador may not look brilliantly treated with the two horses who finished in front of him here 12 months ago but Ed Walker’s horse does have a bit more room for improvement than 2021 winner Commanche Falls and runner-up Gulliver.
He’s had a couple of runs to put him straight this time around and is reasonably treated based on his Ayr Gold Cup second to Bielsa back in September.
However, he’s not being missed in the market around 12/1 and, at a much bigger price, preference is for the six-year-old RED who is drawn on the other side of the track to First Folio.
He was beginning to look a little bit of a spent force for former trainer Amanda Perrett, including a mid-pack finish on unsuitably soft ground in this race last year, but Commanche Falls’ trainer Michael Dods has clearly rediscovered the horse’s mojo this season, building on a comeback run in April to win decent little handicaps at Thirsk and Ripon in May and June.
He’s since run fractionally below that sort of level on the face of it when third to Justanotherbottle back at Ripon last time, but that small-field event didn’t play to his strengths at all, with the front two dominating throughout and nothing really able to get into things from off the pace.
That won’t be the case here as there’s loads of pace signed on, especially among the high numbers, and Tinto should get a good tow into it under David Probert from stall 18 on ground he’ll appreciate.
He’s 6lb better off with Ripon conqueror Justanotherbottle for a two and a three-quarter-length defeat and, having won a Newmarket handicap from a mark of 100 just a couple of years ago, he remains decidedly well handicapped here running off 94.
Put faith in Stoute hope to Boss rivals
As touched upon, the Coral Stewards’ Sprint Handicap makes next to no appeal as a betting medium as it’s a bitterly disappointing turnout featuring the 69-rated Dark Shot.
He’s a pretty short price but I’ve no intention of taking on Karl Burke’s thriving three-year-old Lethal Levi, who is 9lb well-in due to winning twice since the weights were first published.
The Coral Summer Handicap has a more attractive shape to it and while Soapy Stevens probably remains on the right side of the assessor following his last-gasp win at the July Course earlier in the month, he seems to have his quirks too and might not be an ideal candidate for this track.
BOSSPOWER isn’t exactly the most straightforward either but he ran quite well when finishing just a length behind Soapy Stevens in fourth at Epsom two starts back, and he’s 8lb better off with that horse here – and that’s before the booking of Harry Davies is taken into account.
Sir Michael Stoute’s charge has dropped to a mark I’m sure he can win off – he’s just 1lb higher than when last successful at Kempton last June – and he’s well worth another shot at this sort of trip having clearly not appreciated a slightly strange drop back to 10 furlongs at Chelmsford last time.
Perhaps that was more of an experiment with the tongue-tie, which is retained here, but the assessor dropping him another couple of pounds looks a helpful bonus and his one turf win came on good to firm so I don’t see the ground as being an issue.
He’s got a handy draw in stall four next to another Johnston pace angle in Golden Flame so Davies should have options and a reasonable early position to work with. I make him a bet at 12s-plus but he wouldn’t be too keen at anything shorter.
Ralph Beckett’s returning Yesyes was the closest I came to a bet in the feature Qatar Lillie Langtry Stakes but Sea La Rosa is by far the most likely winner despite the going looking lively enough for the favourite.
Yesyes was tried in Group One company at the end of her three-year-old campaign and it may be significant that she remains in training at four, but we can let her with around 6/1 and I won’t be kicking myself for not putting her up.
Published at 1600 BST on 29/07/22
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