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2022 British Grand Prix Odds, F1 Picks & Betting Predictions

Red Bull driver Max Verstappen of the Netherlands races in turn five during the Miami Grand Prix at Miami International Autodrome.

Red Bull driver Max Verstappen of the Netherlands races in turn five during the Miami Grand Prix at Miami International Autodrome.

USA TODAY Sports

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It’s difficult to say whether Red Bull has been truly dominant of late or if Ferrari has fumbled away their early-season advantage. Regardless of the reason, Red Bull has won six consecutive races and has widened the gap in the constructor standings to 76 points. Max Verstappen has five of those wins, and he owns a 46-point advantage over Charles Leclerc in the driver standings as a result. If we have hope to have anything close to the championship competition of 2021, Ferrari will need a big weekend.

As is typical, we have a few teams unveiling upgraded packages. Mercedes is the most competitive team boasting an upgrade and many expect the new package to vault them back into true podium contention – including Red Bull team boss Christian Horner. Alex Albon of Williams will also be a name to watch. Williams only upgraded his car from him – not Nicholas Latifi’s – and it is the first upgrade the team has introduced this season.

Albon has shown the ability to compete for points finishes even in a car with poor pace, so if the upgrade lands he could be a long-shot top-10 finisher

Formula 1 British Grand Prix odds

drivers odds
Max Verstappen +100
charles leclerc +225
sergio perez +900
Lewis Hamilton +1100
George Russell +1200
Carlos Sainz +1200
Fernando Alonso +15000
Valtteri Bottas +20000
Daniel Ricciardo +25000

Odds via Caesars Sportsbook and accurate as of publication.

Formula 1 British Grand Prix Best Bets

  • Race Winner: Max Verstappen (+100), Charles Leclerc (+225)
  • Top-6 finishes: Lando Norris (+110), Valtteri Bottas (+130), Daniel Ricciardo (+425)
  • Top-10 finishes: Zhou Guanyu (+170), Alex Albon (+550)
  • Winning Margin: Between 5 and 10 seconds (+300)

We expect McLaren to have a good race, and both drivers have a realistic chance to finish in the top six.

As for the race winner, we’d be much more likely to bet on Leclerc. Verstappen getting a 51% implied chance to win the race isn’t outlandish, but Leclerc doesn’t get enough respect with a 31% implied chance. If both cars run without problem, Ferrari should have an even chance to stick with Red Bull. That’s the same reason we’d bet on a tight winning margin, and the under five seconds (+185) is also a decent option.

Valtteri Bottas has secured a top-10 finish in seven of nine races this season, three of which have come in the top six. One of those was at the Emilia Romagna Grand Prix, and with a Ferrari engine powering the Alfa Romeo, it should be a strong week for both drivers.

2022 British Grand Prix Betting Tips

The Silverstone Circuit itself is fast. Eighty percent of the lap is taken at full throttle, which leads to both a lot of action on the track and the need for strong tire management. That explains the relatively low rate of pole finishers that manage to win the race, as compared to some of the circuits raced earlier in the season such as Barcelona and Monaco.

For both bets and DraftKings fantasy lineups, don’t be afraid to build through drivers and constructors that would seemingly be long shots – within reason.

Pirelli recognizes the demand that the track places on their tires and has sent the three hardest compounds for the weekend. When looking at pit strategy, we can’t take much from last year’s race because it was a sprint weekend and there was a red flag on the opening lap that allowed a free tire change and altered team’s plans.

Even so, we can expect the default strategy to be starting the race on the medium compound before running a final stint on the hard compound. Of course, those who don’t qualify as well as hoped will alter that strategy as they see fit.

Key Stats at Silverstone Circuit

  • Number of Races: 57
  • Winners from Pole: 20
  • Winners from top-5 starters: 53
  • Winners from top-10 starters: 57
  • Fastest Lap: 1:27.639 – Lewis Hamilton

British Grand Prix Draft Kings Daily Fantasy Value Picks

(Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)

DraftKings Tier 1 Values

  • Max Verstappen: $11,800
  • Charles Leclerc: $11,200

DraftKings Tier 2 Values

  • Carlos Sainz Jr.: $8,600
  • Lando Norris: $7,800
  • Valtteri Bottas: $7,200
  • Fernando Alonso: $6,400

DraftKings Tier 3 Values

  • Stephen Ocon: $5,800
  • Daniel Ricciardo: $5,400
  • Alex Albon: $3,400
  • Zhou Guanyu: $3,200

DraftKings Constructor Values

  • Red Bull Racing – $11,900
  • Ferraris – $10,800
  • McLaren – $6,000
  • Alpine-$5,400
  • Alfa-Romeo – $4,000

Our British Grand Prix Fantasy Picks

  • Captain – Max Verstappen – $17,700
  • Lando Norris – $7,800
  • Esteban Ocon – $5,800
  • Alex Albon – $3,400
  • Zhou Guanyu – $3,200
  • Builder – Red Bull Racing – $11,900

Until proven otherwise, Red Bull and Ferrari are the only two constructors capable of putting their cars into realistic contention to win a race. Without simply building a contrarian lineup for the sake of it (which is viable from a game theory perspective), all lineups will build through those two teams.

Leclerc has finished on the podium in every race as a Ferrari driver at Silverstone, even when the car hasn’t been as strong as it is in 2022. There’s a reasonable case to use him in the Captain slot based on his past form at the circuit. Contrarily, Sergio Perez has finished 16th, 17th and 10th in his last three races. To be fair, only the 16th place finish came as a Red Bull driver. Even so, that individual form does point to potentially building through Ferrari and Leclerc. However, Verstappen’s recent dominance still has me leaning toward a stack of him and Red Bull to begin our lineup.

Nothing in Tier 2 should be particularly surprising given the results of the season and pace of the drivers in that group. The driver to highlight is Norris. McLaren performs well at circuits where there are high-speed corners and minimal breaking even dating back to 2021.

Norris’ best result this season was a third-place finish at Emilia Romagna, which has a 70% full-throttle rate. Silverstone is even higher, so we like both McLaren drivers to finish well in the race. If we were to pivot away from a build with Leclerc or Verstappen paired with Ferrari or Red Bull as our captain/constructor combo, we’d look to Norris/McLaren.

In Tier 3, the drivers priced in the punt range are the most interesting discussion point. Albon has shown the ability to get the most out of his Williams this season and now the team is poised to offer its first upgrade of the season. Aside from being a near lock to beat teammate Nicholas Latifi, Albon should fight for points toward the back-end of the top-10.

Guanyu is a bit of a different discussion but still a strong value. Alfa Romeo has a quick car, which Valtteri Bottas has come from throughout the first nine races. Guanyu has been inconsistent in his results from him as a rookie, but he is familiar with the Silverstone Circuit due to his experience from him in F2 – something he noted during his media availability Thursday. He’s also just run into bad luck with technical failures in his rookie season, so there’s the case to be made that he is simply mispriced.

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